MODEL VERDICT
nVent Electric plc (NVT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $158.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $142.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $134.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $131.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $130.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $98.59 | -38.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $90.97 | -42.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $142.97 | -10.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $97.84 | -38.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $80.33 | -49.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $96.25 | -39.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $93.02 | -41.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $96.63 | -39.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $143.14 | -10.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $97.76 | -38.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.21 | -33.2% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $139 | $152 | $166 | $179 | $193 |
| Conservative (7%) | $142 | $156 | $170 | $184 | $197 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $147 | $161 | $175 | $190 | $204 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $152 | $166 | $181 | $196 | $210 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.56 | 21.72 | 16.16 | 34.60 | 6.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.50 | 25.41 | 17.98 | 179.38 | 59.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.56 | 20.21 | 12.64 | 34.22 | 6.77 |
| P/FCF | 19.66 | 19.32 | 12.99 | 30.20 | 5.53 |
| P/FFO | 24.61 | 16.91 | 13.32 | 71.30 | 20.91 |
| P/AFFO | 52.94 | 18.87 | 14.53 | 256.49 | 89.88 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.79 | 2.58 | 1.64 | 4.50 | 1.03 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.04 | 2.82 | 1.98 | 4.31 | 0.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVT's fair value at $106.21 vs the current price of $158.96, implying -33.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $89.07 (P10) to $115.01 (P90), with a median of $101.40.
NVT's current P/E of 36.9x compares to the industry median of 33.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +11.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.6x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
17 analysts cover NVT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $134.00 (range: $130.00 — $141.00), implying -15.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NVT trades at the 4170th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NVT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5390.0% to approximately $73. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.