MODEL VERDICT
Northwest Bancshares, Inc. (NWBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $13.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $13.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $13.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $13.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $13.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $12.20 | -12.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $14.99 | +7.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $13.38 | -4.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $23.82 | +70.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $12.21 | -12.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $13.05 | -6.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.97 | +0.2% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| Base Case (8.2%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.72 | 13.31 | 11.70 | 20.55 | 3.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.15 | 13.05 | 4.53 | 14.72 | 3.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.42 | 12.13 | 4.38 | 14.26 | 3.36 |
| P/FCF | 13.08 | 12.42 | 9.57 | 18.79 | 3.12 |
| P/FFO | 13.73 | 13.77 | 9.94 | 19.25 | 3.04 |
| P/TBV | 1.46 | 1.38 | 1.25 | 1.79 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 15.04 | 14.03 | 10.50 | 22.75 | 3.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.05 | 0.93 | 1.30 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.74 | 2.72 | 2.01 | 3.42 | 0.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NWBI's fair value at $13.97 vs the current price of $13.94, implying +0.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.10 (P10) to $15.11 (P90), with a median of $14.08.
NWBI's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +14.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
14 analysts cover NWBI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.67 (range: $13.00 — $16.00), implying +5.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NWBI trades at the 7020th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NWBI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3060.0% to approximately $18. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.