MODEL VERDICT
Northwestern Energy Group Inc (NWE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $72.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $71.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $72.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $73.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $70.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $58.80 | -18.9% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $21.63 | -70.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $112.45 | +55.1% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $65.21 | -10.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $15.63 | -78.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $38.06 | -47.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $58.73 | -19.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.30 | -18.2% | 100% | 92 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
| Conservative (5%) | $65 | $71 | $77 | $83 | $90 |
| Base Case (-0.8%) | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 | $85 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 | $84 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.66 | 18.01 | 14.65 | 21.95 | 2.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.44 | 21.11 | 18.41 | 22.33 | 1.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.37 | 12.58 | 11.46 | 13.09 | 0.70 |
| P/FFO | 8.48 | 8.83 | 7.26 | 9.70 | 0.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 2.16 | 0.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.34 | 1.27 | 1.10 | 1.78 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.37 | 2.26 | 2.16 | 2.89 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates NWE's fair value at $59.30 vs the current price of $72.49, implying -18.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.95 (P10) to $63.77 (P90), with a median of $57.06.
NWE's current P/E of 24.7x compares to the industry median of 20.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +23.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
18 analysts cover NWE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $66.33 (range: $54.00 — $75.00), implying -8.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (12), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: NWE trades at the 7690th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NWE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 510.0% to approximately $69. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.