MODEL VERDICT
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $14.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $13.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $10.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $9.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $9.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $22.94 | +61.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $30.22 | +112.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $5.32 | -62.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $12.98 | -8.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $14.26 | +0.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $11.32 | -20.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $2.71 | -80.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.19 | -14.1% | 100% | 56 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.82 | 3.03 | 0.69 | 12.51 | 5.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.91 | 4.62 | 1.31 | 13.53 | 5.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.82 | 1.96 | 1.08 | 2.45 | 0.51 |
| P/FCF | 5.35 | 4.81 | 2.21 | 9.57 | 3.12 |
| P/FFO | 1.17 | 0.96 | 0.54 | 1.94 | 0.65 |
| P/TBV | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.05 | 0.42 | 0.13 |
| P/AFFO | 6.21 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 22.02 | 10.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.05 | 0.42 | 0.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.55 | 0.61 | 0.13 | 0.87 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates OBE's fair value at $12.19 vs the current price of $14.20, implying -14.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.18 (P10) to $27.60 (P90), with a median of $14.53.
OBE's current P/E of 39.4x compares to the industry median of 10.9x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +262.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.8x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover OBE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OBE trades at the 8540th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OBE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9510.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.