MODEL VERDICT
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $7.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $7.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $7.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $7.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.16 | Pending | +27.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $3.01 | -61.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $16.11 | +105.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $17.86 | +127.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $19.65 | +150.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.55 | +9.0% | 100% | 50 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.25 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 5.30 | 2.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.26 | 3.10 | 1.31 | 13.53 | 5.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.76 | 1.96 | 1.08 | 8.09 | 2.64 |
| P/FCF | 5.35 | 4.81 | 2.21 | 9.57 | 3.12 |
| P/FFO | 0.98 | 0.80 | 0.54 | 1.79 | 0.57 |
| P/TBV | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.05 | 0.42 | 0.14 |
| P/AFFO | 6.21 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 22.02 | 10.54 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.05 | 0.42 | 0.14 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.13 | 0.87 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates OBE's fair value at $8.55 vs the current price of $7.85, implying +9.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.18 (P10) to $12.05 (P90), with a median of $8.88.
OBE's current P/E of -4.0x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -128.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.3x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover OBE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OBE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.