MODEL VERDICT
OFS Credit Company, Inc. (OCCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 104 industry peers | $10.53 | +145.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 117 industry peers | $9.13 | +112.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 110 bank peers | $9.26 | +115.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 91 industry peers | $19.17 | +346.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 105 industry peers | $10.54 | +145.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 98 analyst estimates | $14.64 | +241.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.32 | +233.8% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.04 | 7.90 | 3.50 | 138.73 | 76.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.17 | 3.90 | 2.79 | 101.81 | 56.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.91 | 5.77 | 4.02 | 10.93 | 3.59 |
| P/FFO | 34.06 | 11.41 | 4.46 | 108.96 | 50.11 |
| P/TBV | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.97 | 0.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.81 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.97 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 24.97 | 4.56 | 2.40 | 108.96 | 46.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates OCCI's fair value at $14.32 vs the current price of $4.29, implying +233.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.00 (P10) to $28.94 (P90), with a median of $16.63.
OCCI's current P/E of 4.8x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (104 peers in the group). This represents a -59.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover OCCI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OCCI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.