MODEL VERDICT
Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $1.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $1.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $1.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $1.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $1.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $0.46 | -74.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $0.43 | -76.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.17 | +187.0% | 100% | 45 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.67 | 5.57 | 0.66 | 9.53 | 3.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.67 | 5.57 | 0.66 | 9.53 | 3.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 1011.52 | 91.83 | 23.27 | 4776.56 | 2105.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates OCGN's fair value at $5.17 vs the current price of $1.80, implying +187.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 45/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
OCGN's current P/E of -7.8x compares to the industry median of 24.4x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -132.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover OCGN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $3.50 — $6.00), implying +177.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 45/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OCGN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.