MODEL VERDICT
Omega Flex, Inc. (OFLX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $34.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $33.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $32.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $32.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 2, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $32.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $24.76 | -27.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $39.40 | +14.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $43.87 | +27.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $37.87 | +10.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $55.11 | +60.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $50.25 | +46.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $36.00 | +4.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $20.86 | -39.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $42.72 | +24.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $38.15 | +11.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.95 | +92.3% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27 | $31 | $34 | $38 | $42 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28 | $32 | $36 | $39 | $43 |
| Base Case (0.8%) | $27 | $31 | $34 | $38 | $41 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $27 | $31 | $34 | $38 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.34 | 39.88 | 23.58 | 74.11 | 18.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.67 | 29.29 | 17.49 | 54.42 | 13.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.89 | 28.26 | 16.53 | 52.70 | 13.77 |
| P/FCF | 50.60 | 53.00 | 22.47 | 78.62 | 22.84 |
| P/FFO | 42.45 | 38.11 | 21.99 | 70.92 | 17.98 |
| P/TBV | 18.01 | 13.92 | 5.32 | 34.39 | 11.67 |
| P/AFFO | 44.96 | 39.62 | 24.54 | 72.90 | 18.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.76 | 13.23 | 5.09 | 31.78 | 10.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.09 | 7.51 | 4.17 | 13.93 | 3.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OFLX's fair value at $65.95 vs the current price of $34.30, implying +92.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.99 (P10) to $56.53 (P90), with a median of $49.09.
OFLX's current P/E of 19.3x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -21.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for OFLX.
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OFLX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.2σ, meaning margins are 2.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 24020.0% to approximately $117. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.