OGE Energy Corp. (OGE)
Valuation Overview•Is OGE Energy Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Moderate quality score of 59/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral with steady expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
OGE demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-1.2% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 23.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $752.6M | +9.2% | -1.2% | +9.0% | +4.0% | |
| EBITDA | $249.5M | — | +7.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $50.2M | +6.6% | -10.9% | — | +5.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.24 | +5.9% | -11.3% | — | +5.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $175.5M | +129.7% | — | +5.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 48.8% | 46.0% | 40.6% | 41.5% |
| Operating Margin | 23.9% | 24.6% | 21.6% | 22.2% |
| Net Margin | 14.0% | 14.9% | 16.9% | 15.7% |
| FCF Margin | 38.1% | -1.6% | -7.1% | -1.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.24 | $0.24 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.30 | $0.33 | +10.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.16 | $1.14 | -1.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.55 | $0.53 | -3.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.22 | $0.31 | +40.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.47 | $0.51 | +8.5% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.13 | $1.09 | -3.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.46 | $0.51 | +10.9% |
Total return is +11.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -13.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +12.3% | +3.0% | — |
| 1Y | +11.7% | -13.3% | +3.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +12.8% | -6.7% | +13.8% |
| 5YCAGR | +10.7% | -2.4% | +24.9% |
| 10YCAGR | +7.3% | -6.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) valuation, health, and returns.
OGE Energy Corp. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +47.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $69.79)
OGE Energy Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $69.79 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $50.47 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $47.50 (implying +0.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
OGE Energy Corp. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 59/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.8%.
OGE Energy Corp. pays a 3.6% dividend yield, covered by a 73% payout ratio with 19 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
OGE Energy Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +9.2% 1Y revenue growth and +5.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -1.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 21 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +0.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for OGE Energy Corp. include: -10.4% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.06x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.