MODEL VERDICT
Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $48.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $46.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $47.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $45.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $44.27 | Below threshold | +1.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $41.65 | -13.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $44.71 | -7.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $27.12 | -43.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $109.16 | +126.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $66.35 | +37.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $19.94 | -58.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $25.87 | -46.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.94 | -13.1% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $43 | $46 | $49 | $52 | $55 |
| Conservative (5%) | $44 | $47 | $50 | $54 | $57 |
| Base Case (0.1%) | $42 | $45 | $48 | $51 | $54 |
| Bull Case (0%) | $42 | $45 | $48 | $51 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.81 | 26.23 | 15.53 | 53.41 | 12.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.26 | 23.90 | 17.65 | 35.12 | 5.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.71 | 15.28 | 13.72 | 17.32 | 1.25 |
| P/FCF | 15.16 | 13.49 | 11.53 | 22.72 | 4.52 |
| P/FFO | 13.11 | 13.67 | 8.99 | 17.45 | 2.97 |
| P/TBV | 2.38 | 2.46 | 2.09 | 2.55 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 15.30 | 15.21 | 9.59 | 20.62 | 4.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.00 | 2.04 | 1.76 | 2.17 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.64 | 8.36 | 6.80 | 10.13 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates OHI's fair value at $41.94 vs the current price of $48.27, implying -13.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.80 (P10) to $45.58 (P90), with a median of $40.29.
OHI's current P/E of 31.1x compares to the industry median of 70.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -55.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover OHI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $49.14 (range: $45.00 — $54.00), implying +1.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (20), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 50.2% is 15.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (34.7%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$30. (2) Multiple compression: OHI trades at the 2730th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.8×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OHI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (34.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3820.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.