MODEL VERDICT
Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $46.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $46.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $46.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $46.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $45.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $57.00 | +21.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $48.69 | +3.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $55.81 | +18.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $30.01 | -36.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $59.95 | +27.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $77.83 | +65.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $24.69 | -47.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $27.95 | -40.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.45 | +7.4% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $42 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 |
| Conservative (15%) | $45 | $49 | $54 | $58 | $63 |
| Base Case (23.3%) | $48 | $53 | $57 | $62 | $67 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $51 | $56 | $61 | $66 | $71 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.33 | 24.42 | 15.53 | 53.41 | 12.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.89 | 22.66 | 17.65 | 35.12 | 5.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.92 | 16.31 | 13.72 | 17.32 | 1.29 |
| P/FCF | 14.66 | 13.49 | 11.53 | 22.72 | 3.83 |
| P/FFO | 13.39 | 14.40 | 8.99 | 17.45 | 3.06 |
| P/TBV | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.09 | 2.87 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 14.94 | 14.93 | 9.59 | 20.62 | 4.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.08 | 2.12 | 1.76 | 2.53 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.08 | 9.57 | 6.80 | 11.50 | 1.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates OHI's fair value at $50.45 vs the current price of $46.98, implying +7.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.07 (P10) to $56.30 (P90), with a median of $48.58.
OHI's current P/E of 24.2x compares to the industry median of 30.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -21.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
28 analysts cover OHI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $49.14 (range: $45.00 — $54.00), implying +4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (19), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 51.0% is 13.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (37.4%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$39. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OHI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1730.0% to approximately $39. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.