Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$48.27
→
Intrinsic$60.98
+26%
$36.47$60.98$107.53
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
OHI shows 26% potential upside using 20% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $48, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $36 → Bull $108. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $78 | $86 | $94 | $103 |
| 10% | $50 | $55 | $61 | $67 |
| 12% | $35 | $38 | $43 | $47 |
| 14% | $25 | $28 | $31 | $35 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($108) offers 123% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- 21% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (15%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($36) implies 24% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$853.17M
Year 2$1.02B
Year 3$1.23B
Year 4$1.47B
Year 5$1.77B
Terminal$26.03B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$710.97MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.