MODEL VERDICT
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $90.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $87.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $83.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $84.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $86.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $96.63 | +6.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $130.32 | +44.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $108.65 | +20.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $54.06 | -40.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $155.34 | +71.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $19.32 | -78.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $166.20 | +83.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $318.78 | +252.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $266.51 | +194.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $104.95 | +16.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $54.06 | -40.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $118.76 | +31.4% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $79 | $91 | $103 | $116 | $128 |
| Conservative (20%) | $85 | $98 | $111 | $124 | $137 |
| Base Case (30.7%) | $92 | $106 | $120 | $135 | $149 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $100 | $115 | $130 | $146 | $161 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.86 | 17.54 | 12.81 | 27.03 | 5.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.27 | 14.89 | 12.61 | 21.37 | 3.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.83 | 11.73 | 9.33 | 18.84 | 3.08 |
| P/FCF | 16.61 | 17.29 | 12.06 | 20.54 | 3.46 |
| P/FFO | 12.90 | 12.55 | 9.45 | 17.91 | 2.85 |
| P/TBV | 4.56 | 5.01 | 3.15 | 5.97 | 1.08 |
| P/AFFO | 23.31 | 25.71 | 18.45 | 27.41 | 4.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.35 | 2.74 | 2.06 | 5.05 | 1.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.99 | 1.93 | 1.29 | 3.11 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates OKE's fair value at $118.76 vs the current price of $90.36, implying +31.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $118.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $96.38 (P10) to $123.05 (P90), with a median of $109.43.
OKE's current P/E of 16.7x compares to the industry median of 20.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -16.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.9x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
39 analysts cover OKE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $89.88 (range: $72.00 — $104.00), implying -0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (21), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OKE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11630.0% to approximately $195. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.