MODEL VERDICT
OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $10.72 | -22.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $12.48 | -10.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $69.52 | +399.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $15.94 | +14.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $14.52 | +4.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $50.36 | +262.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $81.82 | +488.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $69.52 | +399.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.41 | +111.4% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.22 | 3.77 | 3.13 | 8.76 | 3.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.36 | 6.20 | 4.55 | 86.72 | 35.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.61 | 9.55 | 4.05 | 33.09 | 10.89 |
| P/FCF | 9.03 | 3.40 | 0.89 | 28.41 | 13.02 |
| P/FFO | 8.80 | 8.52 | 2.79 | 15.38 | 5.16 |
| P/AFFO | 8.38 | 9.29 | 3.12 | 12.73 | 4.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 0.99 | 0.60 | 2.72 | 0.78 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.56 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ONEW's fair value at $29.41 vs the current price of $13.91, implying +111.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.64 (P10) to $41.80 (P90), with a median of $30.51.
ONEW's current P/E of -1.9x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -107.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.2x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover ONEW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $16.00 — $18.00), implying +22.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ONEW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.