Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS)
Valuation Overview•Is Optex Systems Holdings, Inc Overvalued or Undervalued?
Popular:
Average quality — mixed signals, monitor closely
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25Latest | — | $0.24 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.22 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $0.26 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.12 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | — | $0.15 | — | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $0.18 | — | ||
| Q2'24 | — | $0.16 | — | ||
| Q1'24 | — | $0.06 | — |
Total return, benchmark alpha, and annual history in one section.
3Y, 5Y, and 10Y use CAGR when available.
| Period | Return | vs S&P | Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -22.1% | -30.1% | — |
| 1Y | +53.2% | +22.6% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +51.6% | +32.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +45.2% | +33.3% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +17.0% | +4.0% | — |
Year-by-year total return versus SPY, including dividend contribution.
| Year | Stock Return | SPY Return | Alpha | Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | -1.1% | +0.4% | -1.6% | — |
| 2025 | +111.0% | +16.6% | +94.4% | — |
| 2024 | +0.9% | +24.0% | -23.1% | — |
| 2023Best | +122.0% | +24.8% | +97.2% | — |
| 2022 | +54.5% | -19.9% | +74.4% | — |
| 2021 | +7.5% | +28.8% | -21.3% | — |
| 2020Worst | -11.9% | +15.1% | -27.0% | — |
| 2019 | +49.2% | +28.7% | +20.6% | — |
Based on our multi-model analysis of Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS) at $10.20: Relative valuation verdict: Significantly Undervalued vs industry peers. Fundamental quality score: 51/100 (moderate). This is a quantitative summary combining DCF intrinsic value, peer-based relative valuation, quality scoring, and analyst consensus — not a buy/sell recommendation. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc has multiple fair value estimates from different frameworks: Relative fair value: $50.91 (Significantly Undervalued, +236.6% vs current price). We recommend comparing all three lenses — when DCF, relative, and analyst targets converge, the signal is stronger. When they diverge, investigate what assumptions differ.
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's financial health as measured by our composite scoring: Overall quality score: 51/100. Piotroski F-Score: 8/9 (strong fundamentals). Altman Z-Score: 10.5 (safe zone — low bankruptcy risk). Return on invested capital: 26.1%. Cash conversion (OCF/NI): 1.35x (earnings are cash-backed). The quality score blends profitability (ROIC, ROE, margins), solvency (leverage, coverage, Z-Score), and growth trajectory into a single 0–100 framework updated end-of-day.
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc's performance profile: 1-year total return: +53.2%. 1-year alpha vs S&P 500: +22.6% (outperforming the benchmark). 5-year CAGR: +45.2%. Maximum drawdown (1Y): -41.8%. Relative Strength rating: 17/99 (weak momentum). Beta: 1.85 (more volatile than the market). Total returns include reinvested dividends. Alpha is calculated against the S&P 500 Total Return Index over matching periods.
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc does not currently pay a dividend or conduct significant share buybacks. The company is retaining capital for reinvestment.
No analyst coverage data available for OPXS.
Key risks identified for Optex Systems Holdings, Inc: Cyclicality risk: The stock shows cyclical earnings behavior (severity: medium, currently at Mid-Cycle of the cycle). Drawdown risk: The stock experienced a -41.8% max drawdown in the past year. Volatility risk: Beta of 1.85 indicates significantly higher volatility than the broad market. Note: This model does not capture regulatory changes, management decisions, competitive disruption, or geopolitical events. Macro and qualitative risks remain material and should be assessed independently.
No. This overview dashboard aggregates data from our DCF intrinsic value model, relative peer multiples model, proprietary estimates engine, and third-party analyst consensus feeds. It is strictly for educational and informational purposes. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, quality scores, and signals are automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as investment recommendations. Consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance does not guarantee future results.