MODEL VERDICT
Optex Systems Holdings, Inc (OPXS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $24.98 | +65.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $31.62 | +109.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 35 industry peers | $30.79 | +103.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $31.38 | +107.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 37 industry peers | $35.38 | +133.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 17 industry peers | $79.30 | +424.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 58 industry peers | $25.14 | +66.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 58 industry peers | $24.36 | +61.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 42 industry peers | $36.02 | +138.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $34.33 | +127.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.91 | +236.6% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Conservative (26%) | $15 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Base Case (39.5%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Bull Case (53%) | $18 | $20 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.83 | 12.71 | 4.38 | 19.26 | 5.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.35 | 10.30 | 3.50 | 16.61 | 5.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.75 | 10.80 | 3.97 | 14.78 | 4.65 |
| P/FCF | 339.56 | 45.24 | 4.07 | 984.18 | 484.98 |
| P/FFO | 11.01 | 11.11 | 2.78 | 17.34 | 5.65 |
| P/TBV | 2.15 | 1.95 | 0.99 | 4.04 | 1.12 |
| P/AFFO | 12.58 | 13.22 | 2.85 | 19.53 | 6.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 1.95 | 0.99 | 4.04 | 1.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.24 | 1.08 | 0.59 | 2.38 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPXS's fair value at $50.91 vs the current price of $15.13, implying +236.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.10 (P10) to $102.77 (P90), with a median of $49.92.
OPXS's current P/E of 20.4x compares to the industry median of 42.7x (38 peers in the group). This represents a -52.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for OPXS.
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.4% is 4.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.7%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$10. (2) Multiple compression: OPXS trades at the 530th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.8×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OPXS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3120.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.