MODEL VERDICT
Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $106.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $103.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $114.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $114.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $105.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $244.32 | +128.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $411.42 | +285.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $388.74 | +264.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $32.82 | -69.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $243.11 | +127.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $11.76 | -89.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $208.68 | +95.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $54 | $80 | $107 | $134 | $161 |
| Conservative (5%) | $55 | $82 | $110 | $137 | $164 |
| Base Case (7.0%) | $56 | $84 | $112 | $140 | $167 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $57 | $86 | $114 | $143 | $171 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.94 | 7.19 | 3.38 | 16.47 | 5.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.74 | 7.09 | 4.51 | 15.19 | 3.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.86 | 3.76 | 2.79 | 5.10 | 0.77 |
| P/FCF | 5.99 | 5.00 | 2.87 | 11.08 | 3.56 |
| P/FFO | 5.22 | 4.44 | 2.66 | 7.99 | 2.04 |
| P/TBV | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 1.07 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 6.12 | 5.03 | 2.74 | 10.58 | 3.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.85 | 0.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.43 | 0.45 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPY's fair value at $208.68 vs the current price of $106.81, implying +95.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $208.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $161.16 (P10) to $223.67 (P90), with a median of $191.95.
OPY's current P/E of 8.2x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -56.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover OPY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $200.00 (range: $200.00 — $200.00), implying +87.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OPY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2050.0% to approximately $85. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.