MODEL VERDICT
Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $86.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $88.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $85.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $90.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $73.97 | Pending | +25.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $175.22 | +103.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $276.15 | +220.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $262.81 | +204.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $38.99 | -54.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $177.21 | +105.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $12.28 | -85.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $135.06 | +56.5% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $66 | $80 | $93 | $106 | $120 |
| Conservative (7%) | $68 | $82 | $95 | $109 | $123 |
| Base Case (10.8%) | $71 | $85 | $99 | $113 | $127 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $73 | $88 | $102 | $117 | $131 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.93 | 10.06 | 3.38 | 16.47 | 5.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.58 | 7.58 | 4.51 | 15.19 | 3.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.85 | 3.76 | 2.79 | 5.02 | 0.75 |
| P/FCF | 5.43 | 4.19 | 2.25 | 11.08 | 4.02 |
| P/FFO | 6.02 | 6.61 | 2.66 | 10.05 | 2.68 |
| P/TBV | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.36 | 1.07 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 7.36 | 6.94 | 2.74 | 13.26 | 3.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.31 | 0.85 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 0.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPY's fair value at $135.06 vs the current price of $86.29, implying +56.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $135.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $104.36 (P10) to $167.70 (P90), with a median of $134.68.
OPY's current P/E of 13.5x compares to the industry median of 27.5x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -50.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover OPY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $200.00 (range: $200.00 — $200.00), implying +131.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OPY trades at the 2220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OPY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1590.0% to approximately $73. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.