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O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$93.64
→
Intrinsic$58.13
-38%
$35.87$58.13$102.41
Market implies 28% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 17% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $94, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (28%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $36 → Bull $102. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 13% | 15% | 17% | 19% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $75 | $82 | $90 | $98 |
| 10% | $48 | $53 | $58 | $64 |
| 12% | $34 | $38 | $41 | $45 |
| 14% | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($102) offers 9% upside at 20% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($36) implies 62% downside at 13% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 28% growth expectations vs 17% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 38% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.37B
Year 2$2.76B
Year 3$3.22B
Year 4$3.76B
Year 5$4.39B
Terminal$69.61B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate16.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.03BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.