Upside case
Bull case
$141+48.9%
ORLY would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
28 bullish · 1 bearish · 47 covering ORLY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
18
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$111
+16.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$90 – $141
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
29.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $79.5B
ORLY price targets
Three scenarios for where ORLY stock could go
Current
~$95
Confidence
75 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $95
Bear
$90
Base
$112
Bull
$141
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$112+18.1%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$90-5.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push ORLY down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsDecember year-end
O'Reilly Automotive is a leading retailer and distributor of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, and accessories in the United States. It generates revenue primarily through retail sales to do-it-yourself customers and wholesale distribution to professional service providers — roughly split 50/50 between these two segments. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive store network with convenient locations, strong brand recognition, and dual-market strategy that serves both DIY consumers and professional mechanics.
Market Cap
$79.5B
Revenue TTM
$18.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
14.3%
ORLY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.78/$0.78
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.83
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.71/$0.73
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.72/$0.69
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.78/$0.78 | -0.1% | $4.5B/$4.5B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85/$0.83 | +2.0% | $4.7B/$4.7B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.71/$0.73 | -2.2% | $4.4B/$4.4B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.72/$0.69 | +3.6% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +2.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.2B
+5.6% YoY
FY2
$20.6B
+7.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.26
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$3.51
+7.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.9B
FCF Margin: 10.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ORLY beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ORLY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive Aftermarket Parts Segment
100.0%
+6.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Automotive Aftermarket Parts Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.4% YoY.
ORLY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $62 — implies -36.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
36.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ORLY
32.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+27% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ORLY
32.0x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+66% premium
vs ORLY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.0x
vs
5Y Average
25.8x
+24% premium
Forward PE
29.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+54%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+94%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+27%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+66%
5Y Avg
25.8x
+24%
PEG Ratio
2.56x
S&P 500
1.72x
+49%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+181%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+45%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+95%
5Y Avg
18.6x
+19%
Price/FCF
49.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
+137%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+241%
5Y Avg
29.2x
+71%
Price/Sales
4.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+43%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+525%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+18%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ORLY | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ORLY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 29.3x | 19.1x+54% | 15.1x+94% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.0x | 25.1x+27% | 19.3x+66% | 25.8x+24% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.56x | 1.72x+49% | 0.91x+181% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.1x | 15.2x+45% | 11.3x+95% | 18.6x+19% |
| Price/FCF | 49.9x | 21.1x+137% | 14.6x+241% | 29.2x+71% |
| Price/Sales | 4.5x | 3.1x+43% | 0.7x+525% | 3.8x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
ORLY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolORLY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ORLY generates $1.9B in free cash flow at a 10.5% margin — 37.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.09
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
37.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$194M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.3× FCF
~4.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
837M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageORLY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Cost Inflation Pressures
Rising wages, medical, and casualty insurance costs erode operating leverage, limiting margin expansion. These inflationary pressures directly reduce the portion of growth that reaches the bottom line, potentially compressing earnings in a competitive aftermarket environment.
High Risk
EV Transition & Product Obsolescence
The shift toward electric vehicles reduces demand for traditional wear items, threatening O'Reilly's core product mix. To stay relevant, the company must invest in high‑voltage components and thermal management systems, a costly and uncertain transition.
Medium
Expansion Execution Risk
O'Reilly plans to open a significant number of new stores, requiring precise supply‑chain coordination and operational integration. Missteps could delay openings, inflate costs, and dilute returns on the expansion strategy.
Medium
Intense Competitive Landscape
The aftermarket is highly contested, forcing continuous investment in service, inventory, and distribution to maintain market share. Failure to keep pace could erode customer loyalty and margin pressure.
Medium
Supplier Disruption Risk
Dependence on key suppliers, many of whom are offshoring or consolidating, exposes the company to supply‑chain disruptions that could raise costs or limit product availability.
Lower
International Operations Risk
Expansion into Mexico and Canada introduces currency volatility and regulatory uncertainty, potentially increasing operating costs and complicating compliance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ORLY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
33-Year Comparable Store Sales Growth
O'Reilly has delivered 33 consecutive years of positive comparable store sales growth. In 2025, revenue rose 6% to $17.78 billion, comparable store sales increased 4.7%, and diluted EPS grew 10%. For 2026, the company is guiding 3‑5% comparable store sales growth with an operating margin of 19.2‑19.7%.
Expanding Market Share in Fragmented Auto Parts
The auto parts market remains highly fragmented, giving O'Reilly room to capture additional share through its extensive store network. The company focuses on inventory depth and rapid delivery, especially in the professional segment, positioning it to win more customers.
Demand Driven by Aging Vehicle Fleet
The average age of U.S. vehicles is rising, projected to reach 13 years by 2026. With new car prices high, consumers are extending the life of older, out‑of‑warranty vehicles, which requires more frequent repairs and boosts aftermarket parts demand.
Strong Margins and Operational Efficiency
O'Reilly projects gross margins of 51.5‑52.0% and operating margins of 19.2‑19.7% for 2026. The firm’s disciplined execution translates into per‑share earnings growth, underpinning its valuation.
Share Repurchases Fuel EPS Growth
O'Reilly’s history of share repurchases has contributed to EPS growth, enhancing shareholder value. The buyback program reinforces management’s confidence in the company’s long‑term prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ORLY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$95.00
52W Range Position
37%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$86.77
+9.5% from the low
52-Week High
$108.72
-12.6% from the high
1 Month
+3.12%
3 Month
+2.30%
YTD
+5.2%
1 Year
+2.7%
3Y CAGR
+14.8%
5Y CAGR
+20.5%
10Y CAGR
+18.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ORLY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
29.3x
vs 17.1x median
+72% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.6%
vs -0.0% median
+27470% above peer median
Net Margin
14.3%
vs 0.5% median
+2685% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ORL ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $79.5B | 29.3x | +5.6% | 14.3% | Buy | +16.6% |
AZO AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $58.7B | 23.8x | +5.7% | 12.8% | Buy | +19.6% |
AAP AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $3.4B | 20.6x | -2.1% | 0.5% | Hold | +3.3% |
GPC GPC Genuine Parts Company | $14.5B | 13.6x | +4.1% | 0.2% | Hold | +35.9% |
PRT PRTS CarParts.com, Inc. | $65M | — | -7.0% | -9.2% | — | — |
LKQ LKQ LKQ Corporation | $7.2B | 9.4x | -0.0% | 3.7% | Buy | +36.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ORLY Dividend and Capital Return
ORLY returns 2.6% annually — null% through dividends and 2.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
22M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
837M
At 2.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsORLY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $111, implying +16.6% from the current price of $95. The bear case scenario is $90 and the bull case is $141.
02What is the ORLY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ORLY is $111 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $115 (+21.1% from today), and the low-end target is $105 (+10.5%). The base case model target is $112.
03Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) stock overvalued in 2026?
ORLY trades at 29.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ORLY in 2026 are: (1) Cost Inflation Pressures — Rising wages, medical, and casualty insurance costs erode operating leverage, limiting margin expansion. (2) EV Transition & Product Obsolescence — The shift toward electric vehicles reduces demand for traditional wear items, threatening O'Reilly's core product mix. (3) Expansion Execution Risk — O'Reilly plans to open a significant number of new stores, requiring precise supply‑chain coordination and operational integration. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ORLY will report consensus revenue of $19.2B (+5.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.26 (+5.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.6B in revenue.
06When does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ORLY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. generate?
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) generated $1.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.5%. ORLY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.1B TTM).