MODEL VERDICT
Ouster, Inc. (OUST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $26.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $28.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $24.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $24.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $20.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $21.86 | -17.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $21.53 | -18.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.98 | -5.5% | 100% | 52 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.09 | 3.49 | 1.50 | 4.91 | 1.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.59 | 2.67 | 0.89 | 4.66 | 1.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.83 | 6.16 | 3.41 | 20.74 | 6.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates OUST's fair value at $24.98 vs the current price of $26.45, implying -5.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.29 (P10) to $37.50 (P90), with a median of $22.98.
OUST's current P/E of -24.7x compares to the industry median of 32.4x (32 peers in the group). This represents a -176.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover OUST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $33.00 — $40.00), implying +39.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (18), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OUST.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.