Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (OXLCI)
Valuation Overview•Is Oxford Lane Capital Corp. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 36/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
OXLCI demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-10.1%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $166.3M | -9.0% | — | — | +20.7% | |
| EBITDA | -$578.6M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$606.0M | -1307.4% | -50.6% | — | -21.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-6.23 | -1230.2% | — | — | +12.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $249.0M | +198.9% | — | +41.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 93.4% | 89.4% | 93.6% | 96.8% |
| Operating Margin | -10.1% | 3.5% | 31.0% | 51.6% |
| Net Margin | -63.2% | -20.5% | -12.7% | 13.5% |
| FCF Margin | 182.7% | -8.7% | 42.7% | 41.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'25Latest | $2.25 | $0.24 | -89.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.54 | $-0.19 | -135.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.67 | $0.26 | -61.2% | ||
| Q2'24 | $0.62 | $0.50 | -19.2% | ||
| Q3'23 | $0.50 | $0.97 | +95.0% | ||
| Q1'23 | $0.60 | $0.91 | +52.3% | ||
| Q3'22 | $-0.40 | $0.95 | +337.3% | ||
| Q1'22 | $0.89 | $1.10 | +23.6% |
Total return is +8.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -16.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +3.5% | -5.9% | — |
| 1Y | +8.7% | -16.3% | +8.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +5.4% | -14.1% | +17.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +3.2% | -9.2% | +17.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +1.6% | -12.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (OXLCI) valuation, health, and returns.
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -15.1% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $21.57)
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $21.57 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $8.74. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 36/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -18.7%.
Oxford Lane Capital Corp. pays a 18.2% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.8% buyback yield.
Oxford Lane Capital Corp.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -9.0% 1Y revenue growth and -1230.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 56% of recent quarters with a -4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Oxford Lane Capital Corp. include: -69.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.52x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.