MODEL VERDICT
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $51.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $55.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $59.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $57.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $57.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $54.67 | +5.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $59.52 | +14.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $48.89 | -5.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $48.22 | -6.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $40.10 | -22.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $46.59 | -10.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $67.94 | +31.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $61.31 | +18.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $62.88 | +21.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $48.79 | -5.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $48.22 | -6.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.59 | +7.3% | 100% | 77 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $46 | $52 | $57 | $63 | $69 |
| Conservative (16%) | $49 | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 |
| Base Case (25.2%) | $52 | $59 | $65 | $72 | $78 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $56 | $63 | $70 | $77 | $84 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.61 | 43.07 | 19.85 | 65.23 | 16.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.79 | 20.16 | 15.21 | 27.27 | 5.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.72 | 11.33 | 6.61 | 66.29 | 21.16 |
| P/FCF | 39.40 | 30.46 | 18.28 | 74.89 | 24.33 |
| P/FFO | 13.34 | 13.12 | 10.76 | 16.12 | 1.74 |
| P/TBV | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.12 | 2.83 | 0.64 |
| P/AFFO | 613.68 | 28.58 | 16.37 | 3554.64 | 1440.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.97 | 1.94 | 1.12 | 2.83 | 0.64 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.54 | 3.22 | 2.30 | 5.42 | 1.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAAS's fair value at $55.59 vs the current price of $51.81, implying +7.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.73 (P10) to $80.18 (P90), with a median of $65.02.
PAAS's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 18.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +6.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.6x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
24 analysts cover PAAS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $75.00 (range: $54.00 — $94.00), implying +44.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.1% is 21.5 percentage points above the 5-year average (11.2%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$48. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAAS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (11.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 670.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.