MODEL VERDICT
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $93.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $89.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $91.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $90.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $85.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $63.19 | -32.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $54.58 | -41.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $75.66 | -18.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $49.23 | -47.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $48.91 | -47.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $41.36 | -55.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $42.31 | -54.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $12.11 | -87.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $20.54 | -77.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $71.49 | -23.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $42.01 | -54.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $77.03 | -17.2% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $76 | $85 | $95 | $104 | $114 |
| Conservative (6%) | $77 | $87 | $97 | $106 | $116 |
| Base Case (8.5%) | $80 | $89 | $99 | $109 | $119 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $82 | $92 | $102 | $112 | $123 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.11 | 30.03 | 24.49 | 45.05 | 6.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.56 | 22.45 | 19.29 | 33.77 | 4.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.39 | 20.14 | 18.20 | 29.85 | 3.87 |
| P/FCF | 29.39 | 27.73 | 23.08 | 43.14 | 6.54 |
| P/FFO | 27.10 | 25.72 | 21.75 | 38.33 | 5.25 |
| P/TBV | 46.48 | 45.88 | 29.32 | 70.29 | 16.36 |
| P/AFFO | 29.90 | 28.49 | 24.24 | 42.07 | 5.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.82 | 12.35 | 9.84 | 16.77 | 2.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.04 | 8.62 | 7.29 | 12.18 | 1.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PAYX's fair value at $77.03 vs the current price of $93.02, implying -17.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $77.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $71.26 (P10) to $89.10 (P90), with a median of $79.99.
PAYX's current P/E of 20.3x compares to the industry median of 16.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +22.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.1x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
30 analysts cover PAYX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $112.14 (range: $98.00 — $126.00), implying +20.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (20), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PAYX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (39.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12570.0% to approximately $210. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.