MODEL VERDICT
PotlatchDeltic Corporation (PCH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $41.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $41.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $41.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $41.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $41.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 5 REIT peers | $2.49 | -94.0% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $35.75 | -14.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $78.95 | +89.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $39.43 | -5.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $9.24 | -77.9% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $21.87 | -47.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $27.37 | -34.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $28.70 | -31.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.03 | -32.8% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 125× | 137× | 149× (Current) | 161× | 173× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 | $49 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
| Base Case (-19.3%) | $28 | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 |
| Bull Case (-26%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.58 | 20.25 | 9.60 | 140.18 | 47.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.85 | 14.86 | 8.43 | 107.71 | 36.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.87 | 10.90 | 2.77 | 136.54 | 47.65 |
| P/FCF | 33.44 | 15.43 | 9.50 | 104.97 | 34.60 |
| P/FFO | 35.64 | 13.90 | 2.20 | 173.41 | 61.22 |
| P/TBV | 1.93 | 1.83 | 0.99 | 2.70 | 0.66 |
| P/AFFO | 21.46 | 15.05 | 2.33 | 45.07 | 17.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.91 | 1.81 | 0.98 | 2.67 | 0.65 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.01 | 3.84 | 0.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCH's fair value at $28.03 vs the current price of $41.73, implying -32.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.75 (P10) to $44.18 (P90), with a median of $30.32.
PCH's current P/E of 149.0x compares to the industry median of 33.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +351.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover PCH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $51.00 (range: $45.00 — $57.00), implying +22.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PCH trades at the 8670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (44.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PCH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2560.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.