MODEL VERDICT
Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $109.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $102.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $100.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $100.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $95.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $103.50 | -5.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $128.08 | +16.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $70.08 | -36.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $114.02 | +4.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $90.18 | -17.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $125.70 | +14.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $192.42 | +75.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $123.08 | +12.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $118.00 | +7.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $74.36 | -32.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $114.42 | +4.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $221.43 | +102.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $103 | $112 | $121 | $130 | $139 |
| Conservative (18%) | $109 | $119 | $128 | $138 | $147 |
| Base Case (28.2%) | $119 | $129 | $139 | $149 | $160 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $128 | $139 | $150 | $161 | $172 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 109.89 | 120.66 | 37.94 | 187.43 | 59.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 110.58 | 116.75 | 27.77 | 226.89 | 72.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 69.88 | 72.30 | 20.92 | 130.37 | 40.66 |
| P/FCF | 80.02 | 80.08 | 25.16 | 153.20 | 49.14 |
| P/FFO | 70.77 | 75.75 | 26.39 | 116.85 | 35.18 |
| P/TBV | 23.68 | 25.74 | 12.96 | 35.75 | 9.59 |
| P/AFFO | 109.65 | 117.53 | 34.32 | 191.28 | 59.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.97 | 17.87 | 6.99 | 29.25 | 8.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.86 | 12.86 | 5.41 | 20.92 | 6.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCTY's fair value at $221.43 vs the current price of $109.60, implying +102.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $221.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $169.75 (P10) to $281.35 (P90), with a median of $223.73.
PCTY's current P/E of 27.3x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +56.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 109.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover PCTY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $168.08 (range: $120.00 — $245.00), implying +53.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.2% is 1.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (12.3%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$382. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PCTY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 24840.0% to approximately $382. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.