MODEL VERDICT
Palladyne AI Corp. (PDYN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $6.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $7.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $6.34 | Below threshold | +15.5% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $4.84 | Pending | +51.2% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $6.77 | Below threshold | +8.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 87 industry peers | $1.28 | -81.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 87 industry peers | $0.53 | -92.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.00 | -55.4% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.13 | 0.66 | 0.45 | 5.28 | 2.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.10 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 5.28 | 2.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 68.36 | 23.93 | 3.01 | 222.58 | 104.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates PDYN's fair value at $3.00 vs the current price of $6.72, implying -55.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.78 (P10) to $7.06 (P90), with a median of $2.93.
PDYN's current P/E of -2.4x compares to the industry median of 23.1x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -110.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for PDYN.
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PDYN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.