MODEL VERDICT
Palladyne AI Corp. (PDYN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $6.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $6.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $6.93 | Below threshold | -6.5% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $8.53 | Below threshold | -24.0% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $6.72 | Below threshold | -2.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $4.95 | -24.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $0.43 | -93.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $0.20 | -97.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $5.89 | -10.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.80 | -42.2% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.50 | 2.14 | 0.45 | 5.28 | 2.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.18 | 1.49 | 0.45 | 5.28 | 2.25 |
| P/S Ratio | 61.53 | 34.21 | 3.01 | 222.58 | 91.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates PDYN's fair value at $3.80 vs the current price of $6.57, implying -42.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.39 (P10) to $7.88 (P90), with a median of $4.37.
PDYN's current P/E of 27.4x compares to the industry median of 20.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +32.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover PDYN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.50 (range: $8.00 — $11.00), implying +44.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PDYN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.