Phillips Edison & Co. (PECO)
Valuation Overview•Is Phillips Edison & Co. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 62/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
PECO demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (8.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (28.4% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 29.0% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $188.5M | +10.7% | +8.4% | +8.0% | +11.7% | |
| EBITDA | $121.4M | — | -7.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $41.1M | +77.6% | +32.1% | — | +23.6% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.33 | +74.5% | +28.4% | +78.5% | +15.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $94.0M | -11.5% | +4.4% | +7.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 71.0% | 47.0% | 56.6% | 63.0% |
| Operating Margin | 29.0% | 51.8% | 56.1% | 56.4% |
| Net Margin | 19.1% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 3.5% |
| FCF Margin | 31.7% | 32.4% | 33.0% | 16.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.18 | $0.33 | +80.5% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.17 | $0.24 | +39.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.16 | $0.38 | +135.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.64 | $0.20 | -68.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.63 | $0.10 | -84.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.63 | $0.21 | -66.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.12 | $0.15 | +25.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.14 | $0.09 | -35.7% |
Total return is +9.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -6.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +6.9% | -5.5% | — |
| 1Y | +9.4% | -6.4% | +3.8% |
| 3YCAGR | +5.9% | -14.4% | +10.9% |
| 5YCAGR | +7.3% | -4.0% | +19.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +22.2% | +8.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Phillips Edison & Co. (PECO) valuation, health, and returns.
Phillips Edison & Co. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -16.9% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $30.87)
Phillips Edison & Co. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $30.87 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $21.17 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $45.00 (implying +22.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Phillips Edison & Co. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 62/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.0%.
Phillips Edison & Co. pays a 3.1% dividend yield, covered by a 141% payout ratio with 5 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Phillips Edison & Co.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +10.7% 1Y revenue growth and +74.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +8.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 15 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +22.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Phillips Edison & Co. include: -15.6% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.04x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.