MODEL VERDICT
Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (PECO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $39.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $39.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $38.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $37.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $34.82 | Below threshold | +7.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $56.25 | +43.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $24.39 | -37.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $32.98 | -16.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $11.96 | -69.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $23.29 | -40.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $48.28 | +22.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $48.03 | +22.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.11 | -5.5% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 65× | 71× | 77× (Current) | 83× | 89× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $34 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $35 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $50 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $38 | $41 | $45 | $48 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 119.85 | 75.90 | 73.45 | 254.15 | 89.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 47.29 | 45.98 | 41.95 | 55.24 | 5.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.78 | 10.75 | 10.39 | 11.23 | 0.36 |
| P/FCF | 22.24 | 21.83 | 20.52 | 24.79 | 1.84 |
| P/FFO | 16.47 | 16.78 | 15.19 | 17.14 | 0.89 |
| P/TBV | 1.80 | 1.74 | 1.58 | 2.14 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 24.93 | 24.73 | 24.41 | 25.84 | 0.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.73 | 1.71 | 1.56 | 1.95 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.54 | 7.49 | 7.21 | 7.95 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates PECO's fair value at $37.11 vs the current price of $39.28, implying -5.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.39 (P10) to $39.29 (P90), with a median of $36.84.
PECO's current P/E of 77.0x compares to the industry median of 23.4x (20 peers in the group). This represents a +228.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 119.9x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover PECO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $39.40 (range: $37.00 — $42.00), implying +0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PECO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (4.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2870.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.