MODEL VERDICT
PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. (PFLT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $9.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $8.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $8.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $6.92 | -23.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $10.08 | +11.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $10.08 | +11.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $18.72 | +106.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $6.92 | -23.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $9.70 | +6.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.29 | +24.4% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 | $13 |
| Conservative (6%) | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 | $13 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $7 | $9 | $10 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $7 | $9 | $10 | $12 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.02 | 14.29 | 7.81 | 130.56 | 48.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 43.68 | 26.77 | 19.19 | 127.32 | 38.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.68 | 26.77 | 19.19 | 127.32 | 38.85 |
| P/FCF | 7.78 | 9.03 | 4.38 | 9.94 | 2.98 |
| P/TBV | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 1.01 | 0.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 1.01 | 0.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.58 | 7.66 | 4.28 | 11.11 | 2.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PFLT's fair value at $11.29 vs the current price of $9.07, implying +24.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.35 (P10) to $19.23 (P90), with a median of $12.93.
PFLT's current P/E of 12.6x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +31.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover PFLT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.50 (range: $10.50 — $10.50), implying +15.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PFLT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (32.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12130.0% to approximately $20. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.