MODEL VERDICT
Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $22.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $22.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $22.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $22.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $22.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $30.60 | +36.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $24.47 | +9.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $22.78 | +1.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $26.46 | +18.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $30.57 | +36.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $25.14 | +12.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.38 | +13.4% | 100% | 90 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $19 | $23 | $28 | $32 |
| Conservative (6%) | $14 | $19 | $24 | $28 | $33 |
| Base Case (9.9%) | $15 | $20 | $25 | $29 | $34 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $15 | $20 | $25 | $30 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.09 | 11.06 | 8.86 | 17.97 | 3.23 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.37 | 15.05 | 7.83 | 28.65 | 6.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.21 | 13.00 | 7.12 | 20.99 | 4.31 |
| P/FCF | 9.46 | 8.37 | 4.87 | 13.82 | 3.52 |
| P/FFO | 9.85 | 9.73 | 7.23 | 12.17 | 1.93 |
| P/TBV | 1.31 | 1.26 | 1.08 | 1.63 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 10.38 | 10.49 | 7.47 | 12.60 | 2.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 1.13 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.69 | 2.87 | 1.82 | 3.79 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PFS's fair value at $25.38 vs the current price of $22.38, implying +13.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.50 (P10) to $27.16 (P90), with a median of $25.28.
PFS's current P/E of 10.0x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -26.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
9 analysts cover PFS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.00 (range: $25.00 — $25.00), implying +11.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PFS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3370.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.