MODEL VERDICT
Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $882.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $974.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $988.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $963.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $984.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $799.64 | -9.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $843.12 | -4.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $976.66 | +10.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $792.93 | -10.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $835.03 | -5.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $809.62 | -8.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $2274.88 | +157.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $756.79 | -14.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $768.97 | -12.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $976.66 | +10.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $792.92 | -10.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $889.75 | +0.9% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $802 | $891 | $981 | $1070 | $1159 |
| Conservative (16%) | $846 | $940 | $1034 | $1128 | $1222 |
| Base Case (23.9%) | $907 | $1008 | $1109 | $1210 | $1310 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $969 | $1076 | $1184 | $1292 | $1399 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.17 | 28.84 | 17.93 | 32.41 | 4.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.84 | 22.77 | 14.60 | 27.37 | 4.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.15 | 17.18 | 12.11 | 24.89 | 4.32 |
| P/FCF | 22.38 | 19.23 | 17.15 | 34.25 | 6.49 |
| P/FFO | 20.07 | 20.33 | 13.92 | 25.79 | 3.65 |
| P/AFFO | 22.61 | 23.47 | 15.47 | 28.59 | 4.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.78 | 5.67 | 4.28 | 8.36 | 1.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.26 | 2.90 | 1.89 | 5.77 | 1.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PH's fair value at $889.75 vs the current price of $882.23, implying +0.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $889.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $717.08 (P10) to $836.16 (P90), with a median of $775.33.
PH's current P/E of 32.5x compares to the industry median of 36.0x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -9.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
38 analysts cover PH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1042.08 (range: $1000.00 — $1147.00), implying +18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 16.6% is 4.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (16.8%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$747. (2) Multiple compression: PH trades at the 4790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.2×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1530.0% to approximately $747. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.