MODEL VERDICT
Premier, Inc. (PINC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $28.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $28.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $28.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $28.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $28.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $18.91 | -33.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $14.03 | -50.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $5.09 | -82.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $57.21 | +102.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $69.27 | +145.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $17.72 | -37.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $17.88 | -36.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $5.15 | -81.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $56.65 | +100.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.96 | -22.3% | 100% | 70 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 108× | 118× | 128× (Current) | 138× | 148× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| Base Case (-35.9%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (-49%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.98 | 17.88 | 15.32 | 128.45 | 45.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.66 | 13.78 | 5.79 | 24.25 | 6.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.34 | 9.45 | 4.20 | 23.54 | 6.20 |
| P/FCF | 10.91 | 11.26 | 5.44 | 17.01 | 4.21 |
| P/FFO | 12.03 | 10.78 | 8.70 | 18.84 | 3.75 |
| P/TBV | 4.71 | 4.58 | 3.01 | 6.80 | 1.42 |
| P/AFFO | 19.96 | 14.51 | 11.86 | 47.01 | 12.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.81 | 1.70 | 1.15 | 31.16 | 11.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.59 | 2.57 | 1.84 | 3.34 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates PINC's fair value at $21.96 vs the current price of $28.26, implying -22.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.70 (P10) to $28.38 (P90), with a median of $24.94.
PINC's current P/E of 128.5x compares to the industry median of 23.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +455.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
31 analysts cover PINC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.25 (range: $28.25 — $28.25), implying -0.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (19), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PINC trades at the 8330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (36.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PINC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.