MODEL VERDICT
Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $295.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $326.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $322.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $359.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $361.19 | Below threshold | +3.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $270.07 | -8.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $278.36 | -5.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $240.39 | -18.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $266.54 | -9.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $275.75 | -6.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $285.32 | -3.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $239.85 | -18.9% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $262 | $283 | $304 | $325 | $346 |
| Conservative (5%) | $269 | $290 | $312 | $333 | $355 |
| Base Case (5.9%) | $271 | $293 | $314 | $336 | $358 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $276 | $298 | $320 | $343 | $365 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.94 | 19.97 | 10.38 | 37.10 | 11.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.22 | 15.46 | 5.14 | 22.78 | 6.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.88 | 10.41 | 4.69 | 20.06 | 5.32 |
| P/FCF | 9.25 | 7.87 | 1.79 | 18.18 | 7.61 |
| P/FFO | 15.84 | 15.59 | 8.52 | 25.49 | 6.84 |
| P/TBV | 2.94 | 2.74 | 1.39 | 5.33 | 1.32 |
| P/AFFO | 18.15 | 19.19 | 8.96 | 27.55 | 7.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.07 | 1.76 | 1.21 | 3.75 | 0.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.84 | 1.53 | 1.22 | 3.58 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PIPR's fair value at $239.85 vs the current price of $295.55, implying -18.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $239.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $200.26 (P10) to $288.65 (P90), with a median of $242.56.
PIPR's current P/E of 28.9x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +9.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover PIPR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $391.50 (range: $385.00 — $398.00), implying +32.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PIPR trades at the 5560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PIPR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4030.0% to approximately $177. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.