MODEL VERDICT
Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $79.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $86.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $90.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $88.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $83.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $68.97 | -13.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $101.91 | +28.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $93.81 | +18.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $75.04 | -5.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $68.97 | -13.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $73.02 | -8.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $81.72 | +2.9% | 100% | 86 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $74 | $83 | $93 | $102 | $111 |
| Conservative (28%) | $81 | $91 | $101 | $111 | $121 |
| Base Case (42.2%) | $90 | $101 | $113 | $124 | $135 |
| Bull Case (57%) | $99 | $112 | $124 | $137 | $149 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.47 | 21.45 | 10.38 | 37.10 | 10.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.47 | 15.46 | 5.14 | 22.79 | 6.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.35 | 12.56 | 4.69 | 20.06 | 5.24 |
| P/FCF | 10.40 | 10.00 | 1.97 | 18.18 | 6.73 |
| P/FFO | 16.97 | 15.68 | 8.52 | 25.50 | 6.69 |
| P/TBV | 3.49 | 3.42 | 1.59 | 5.33 | 1.36 |
| P/AFFO | 19.20 | 19.88 | 8.96 | 27.55 | 7.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.45 | 2.32 | 1.38 | 3.82 | 0.99 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.12 | 1.60 | 1.26 | 3.58 | 0.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PIPR's fair value at $81.72 vs the current price of $79.42, implying +2.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $81.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.13 (P10) to $90.00 (P90), with a median of $77.94.
PIPR's current P/E of 20.1x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +15.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.5x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
11 analysts cover PIPR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $97.58 (range: $96.25 — $99.50), implying +22.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.8% is 4.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (10.3%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$65. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PIPR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1820.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.