MODEL VERDICT
Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $26.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $26.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $69.33 | +142.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $68.27 | +139.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $48.77 | +70.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $3.65 | -87.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $75.62 | +165.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $201.26 | +605.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $211.72 | +641.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $49.00 | +71.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $3.65 | -87.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.92 | +81.9% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $23 | $27 | $30 | $34 | $37 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $27 | $31 | $34 | $38 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $39 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $37 | $41 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.59 | 12.32 | 8.24 | 43.48 | 14.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.68 | 11.26 | 10.48 | 35.53 | 10.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.91 | 8.42 | 8.00 | 19.63 | 5.07 |
| P/FCF | 47.01 | 16.39 | 8.67 | 146.58 | 66.49 |
| P/FFO | 13.30 | 8.54 | 5.16 | 43.29 | 13.73 |
| P/TBV | 2.20 | 2.27 | 1.09 | 3.17 | 0.67 |
| P/AFFO | 17.65 | 15.25 | 10.23 | 29.85 | 8.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.94 | 1.03 | 0.56 | 1.19 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates PKOH's fair value at $51.92 vs the current price of $28.54, implying +81.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.70 (P10) to $68.68 (P90), with a median of $57.99.
PKOH's current P/E of 16.8x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -41.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover PKOH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $37.00 — $37.00), implying +29.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PKOH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18560.0% to approximately $82. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.