MODEL VERDICT
POSCO Holdings Inc. (PKX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $78.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $70.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $66.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $62.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $63.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $96227.36 | +122155.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $223047.13 | +283278.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $59928.27 | +76038.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $75494.74 | +95815.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $326156.34 | +414277.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $318463.98 | +404504.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $59452.72 | +75433.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $96810.95 | +122897.0% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $99798 | $108669 | $117540 | $126411 | $135282 |
| Conservative (5%) | $102733 | $111865 | $120997 | $130129 | $139261 |
| Base Case (-15.5%) | $82676 | $90025 | $97374 | $104723 | $112072 |
| Bull Case (-21%) | $77392 | $84272 | $91151 | $98030 | $104910 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.49 | 5.93 | 1.92 | 9.49 | 2.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.22 | 2.22 | 1.35 | 3.11 | 0.59 |
| P/FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/FFO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 53.11 | 54.46 | 28.25 | 73.32 | 17.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates PKX's fair value at $96810.95 vs the current price of $78.71, implying +122897.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $96810.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $85688.70 (P10) to $114764.46 (P90), with a median of $100159.86.
PKX's current P/E of 53.4x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +93.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover PKX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $77.00 (range: $77.00 — $77.00), implying -2.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PKX trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PKX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8950.0% to approximately $149. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.