MODEL VERDICT
Playboy, Inc. (PLBY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 18 analyst estimates | $1.38 | -34.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 24 industry peers | $2.82 | +33.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 24 industry peers | $2.35 | +10.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.60 | -24.6% | 100% | 44 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 1.91 | 1.98 | 0.84 | 2.82 | 0.88 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.57 | 0.96 | 0.50 | 4.12 | 1.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLBY's fair value at $1.60 vs the current price of $2.12, implying -24.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.23 (P10) to $2.33 (P90), with a median of $1.78.
PLBY's current P/E of -2.0x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -108.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover PLBY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.63 (range: $0.90 — $28.00), implying +495.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PLBY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.