MODEL VERDICT
PennantPark Investment Corporation (PNNT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.66 | Pending | -4.2% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.87 | Pending | -8.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $4.74 | -0.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $6.18 | +29.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $6.18 | +29.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $10.37 | +117.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $4.74 | -0.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $5.15 | +8.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.91 | +23.9% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.84 | 10.68 | 2.78 | 27.21 | 10.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.46 | 26.65 | 6.29 | 62.27 | 23.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.46 | 26.65 | 6.29 | 62.27 | 23.49 |
| P/FCF | 22.22 | 5.89 | 2.02 | 58.75 | 31.70 |
| P/TBV | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 0.94 | 0.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 0.94 | 0.13 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.28 | 7.36 | 2.40 | 23.42 | 7.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PNNT's fair value at $5.91 vs the current price of $4.77, implying +23.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.20 (P10) to $7.43 (P90), with a median of $6.17.
PNNT's current P/E of 9.5x compares to the industry median of 9.5x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +0.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.8x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
15 analysts cover PNNT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.17 (range: $5.50 — $7.00), implying +29.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PNNT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (25.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1280.0% to approximately $4. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.