MODEL VERDICT
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $103.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $102.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $104.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $102.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $103.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $118.67 | +14.6% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $62.68 | -39.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $116.32 | +12.3% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $91.90 | -11.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $49.01 | -52.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $63.27 | -38.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $118.68 | +14.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.89 | -17.1% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $88 | $98 | $108 | $118 | $129 |
| Conservative (5%) | $90 | $101 | $111 | $122 | $133 |
| Base Case (0.7%) | $86 | $97 | $107 | $117 | $127 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $87 | $97 | $107 | $117 | $128 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.58 | 16.42 | 12.90 | 18.85 | 1.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.14 | 19.93 | 16.51 | 25.63 | 2.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.42 | 11.00 | 10.60 | 13.73 | 1.12 |
| P/FFO | 6.78 | 6.63 | 5.97 | 8.43 | 0.86 |
| P/TBV | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.36 | 1.93 | 0.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.30 | 1.83 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.17 | 2.03 | 1.74 | 2.92 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates PNW's fair value at $85.89 vs the current price of $103.54, implying -17.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.93 (P10) to $92.32 (P90), with a median of $85.44.
PNW's current P/E of 20.5x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -12.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
24 analysts cover PNW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $103.11 (range: $90.00 — $115.00), implying -0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PNW trades at the 5290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PNW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 760.0% to approximately $96. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.