MODEL VERDICT
Insulet Corporation (PODD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $175.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $189.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $203.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $202.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $196.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $92.19 | -47.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $117.43 | -32.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $88.48 | -49.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $114.02 | -34.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $163.24 | -6.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $139.15 | -20.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $749.93 | +328.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $124.95 | -28.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $106.83 | -39.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $89.12 | -49.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $114.59 | -34.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $578.32 | +230.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 42× | 46× | 50× (Current) | 54× | 58× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (41%) | $207 | $226 | $246 | $266 | $285 |
| Conservative (67%) | $244 | $268 | $291 | $314 | $337 |
| Base Case (103.4%) | $297 | $326 | $354 | $382 | $411 |
| Bull Case (140%) | $350 | $384 | $417 | $450 | $484 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1313.76 | 901.05 | 45.17 | 4474.01 | 1654.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 229.20 | 236.77 | 57.62 | 467.02 | 154.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 109.89 | 102.19 | 41.65 | 212.20 | 64.80 |
| P/FCF | 115.06 | 63.16 | 54.10 | 227.92 | 97.84 |
| P/FFO | 178.14 | 245.91 | 38.65 | 303.55 | 119.23 |
| P/TBV | 93.58 | 31.50 | 15.17 | 465.79 | 164.77 |
| P/AFFO | 95.64 | 94.04 | 52.84 | 140.05 | 43.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 42.24 | 27.93 | 13.49 | 140.53 | 44.52 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.10 | 14.45 | 7.55 | 18.64 | 4.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PODD's fair value at $578.32 vs the current price of $175.04, implying +230.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $578.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $247.30 (P10) to $1109.08 (P90), with a median of $578.57.
PODD's current P/E of 50.3x compares to the industry median of 25.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +97.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1313.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
50 analysts cover PODD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $339.00 (range: $220.00 — $435.00), implying +93.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (35), Hold (12), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PODD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 169080.0% to approximately $3135. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.