MODEL VERDICT
Portland General Electric Company (POR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $49.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $50.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $52.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $52.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $53.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $59.23 | +19.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $121.32 | +144.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $70.85 | +42.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $65.92 | +32.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $100.45 | +102.0% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $100.97 | +103.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $127.97 | +157.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $59.23 | +19.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.08 | +67.1% | 100% | 90 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $40 | $46 | $52 | $58 | $63 |
| Conservative (7%) | $41 | $47 | $53 | $59 | $65 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $43 | $49 | $55 | $61 | $67 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $44 | $50 | $57 | $63 | $69 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.56 | 18.85 | 14.49 | 24.87 | 3.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.19 | 21.64 | 10.13 | 26.37 | 5.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.32 | 10.09 | 4.95 | 10.61 | 1.96 |
| P/FFO | 6.60 | 6.30 | 5.62 | 8.02 | 0.83 |
| P/TBV | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.32 | 2.27 | 0.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.93 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.73 | 1.66 | 1.32 | 2.35 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates POR's fair value at $83.08 vs the current price of $49.73, implying +67.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $73.20 (P10) to $84.37 (P90), with a median of $78.71.
POR's current P/E of 18.0x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -16.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
23 analysts cover POR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $52.33 (range: $47.00 — $58.00), implying +5.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that POR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 680.0% to approximately $53. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.