MODEL VERDICT
Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $275.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $252.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $241.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $229.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $230.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $146.43 | -46.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $168.49 | -38.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $176.35 | -35.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $176.22 | -36.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $196.41 | -28.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $195.58 | -29.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $729.28 | +164.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $198.08 | -28.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $179.36 | -34.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $184.00 | -33.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $168.74 | -38.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $187.58 | -31.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 52× | 56× (Current) | 60× | 64× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (24%) | $295 | $319 | $344 | $368 | $393 |
| Conservative (39%) | $330 | $358 | $385 | $413 | $441 |
| Base Case (59.9%) | $380 | $412 | $444 | $475 | $507 |
| Bull Case (81%) | $430 | $466 | $502 | $538 | $573 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 102.91 | 21.45 | 18.03 | 552.25 | 198.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.02 | 14.68 | 9.30 | 233.14 | 80.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.04 | 15.23 | 6.14 | 20.88 | 5.25 |
| P/FCF | 14.62 | 8.84 | 5.13 | 27.94 | 10.98 |
| P/FFO | 20.46 | 18.16 | 12.66 | 31.64 | 6.37 |
| P/TBV | 2.93 | 1.91 | 1.13 | 6.17 | 2.14 |
| P/AFFO | 24.50 | 20.32 | 15.62 | 43.15 | 9.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.91 | 1.91 | 1.12 | 6.05 | 2.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.57 | 1.10 | 0.67 | 3.51 | 1.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates POWL's fair value at $187.58 vs the current price of $275.33, implying -31.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $187.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $141.35 (P10) to $279.17 (P90), with a median of $188.26.
POWL's current P/E of 55.6x compares to the industry median of 35.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +56.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 102.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover POWL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $213.67 (range: $142.33 — $285.00), implying -22.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 16.8% is 12.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.0%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$241. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that POWL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1240.0% to approximately $241. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.