MODEL VERDICT
Perma-Pipe International Holdings, Inc. (PPIH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $37.94 | +17.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 22 industry peers | $52.33 | +62.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $23.47 | -27.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $26.13 | -19.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 23 industry peers | $38.84 | +20.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 20 industry peers | $32.44 | +0.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 16 industry peers | $29.46 | -8.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 24 industry peers | $52.20 | +61.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 24 industry peers | $44.45 | +37.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $23.47 | -27.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 20 industry peers | $26.13 | -19.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.63 | -8.1% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 | $40 |
| Conservative (14%) | $32 | $34 | $37 | $39 | $42 |
| Base Case (21.1%) | $34 | $37 | $39 | $42 | $45 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $47 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.25 | 12.95 | 6.11 | 21.81 | 5.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.39 | 9.62 | 6.73 | 25.81 | 7.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.85 | 7.40 | 5.30 | 10.21 | 1.95 |
| P/FCF | 20.73 | 18.29 | 10.84 | 35.51 | 10.47 |
| P/FFO | 9.95 | 8.85 | 4.48 | 16.98 | 4.57 |
| P/TBV | 1.29 | 1.38 | 0.92 | 1.48 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 19.45 | 20.01 | 8.99 | 29.32 | 7.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.24 | 1.33 | 0.89 | 1.44 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.43 | 0.76 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PPIH's fair value at $29.63 vs the current price of $32.26, implying -8.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.98 (P10) to $38.22 (P90), with a median of $33.54.
PPIH's current P/E of 28.8x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +37.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.3x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for PPIH.
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 6.9% is 8.9 percentage points above the 5-year average (5.0%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$11. (2) Multiple compression: PPIH trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.3×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PPIH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6700.0% to approximately $11. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.