MODEL VERDICT
Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $27.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $29.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $33.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $31.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $29.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $4.31 | -84.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $4.31 | -84.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.08 | -85.1% | 100% | 39 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 105× | 115× | 125× (Current) | 135× | 145× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.42 | 2.55 | 2.14 | 6.43 | 2.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.42 | 2.55 | 2.14 | 6.43 | 2.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates PPTA's fair value at $4.08 vs the current price of $27.47, implying -85.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 39/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.96 (P10) to $4.68 (P90), with a median of $4.31.
PPTA's current P/E of 124.9x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +537.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover PPTA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.00 (range: $41.00 — $41.00), implying +49.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 39/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PPTA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.