MODEL VERDICT
Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $28.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $30.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $26.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $150.48 | +419.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $55.19 | +90.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $50.95 | +76.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $167.66 | +479.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $73.32 | +153.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $157.22 | +443.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $176.88 | +511.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $185.53 | +540.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $94.50 | +226.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $159.18 | +449.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.30 | +225.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $22 | $25 | $29 | $32 | $36 |
| Conservative (5%) | $23 | $26 | $30 | $33 | $37 |
| Base Case (-1.2%) | $21 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $21 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.85 | 27.43 | 23.47 | 71.64 | 17.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.02 | 22.41 | 17.27 | 52.71 | 12.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.49 | 16.59 | 12.65 | 20.92 | 2.82 |
| P/FCF | 13.00 | 14.03 | 8.24 | 15.13 | 2.41 |
| P/FFO | 17.83 | 16.88 | 13.15 | 23.83 | 4.06 |
| P/AFFO | 18.71 | 17.41 | 13.64 | 25.67 | 4.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.47 | 5.60 | 3.95 | 6.60 | 0.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.75 | 3.84 | 1.93 | 4.63 | 0.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRGS's fair value at $94.30 vs the current price of $28.95, implying +225.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $90.29 (P10) to $117.77 (P90), with a median of $104.10.
PRGS's current P/E of 17.4x compares to the industry median of 30.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -43.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover PRGS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $45.00 (range: $45.00 — $45.00), implying +55.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRGS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22060.0% to approximately $93. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.