MODEL VERDICT
Prudential Financial, Inc. 5.95 (PRH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $23.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $105.47 | +340.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $98.46 | +310.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $138.79 | +479.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $240.28 | +902.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $105.34 | +339.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $35.90 | +49.8% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $135.49 | +465.5% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $671.54 | +2702.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $117.25 | +389.3% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $31 | $31 | $31 | $38 | $54 |
| Conservative (5%) | $32 | $32 | $32 | $40 | $55 |
| Base Case (-5.7%) | $28 | $28 | $28 | $36 | $50 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $28 | $28 | $28 | $35 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.05 | 1.75 | 0.35 |
| P/TBV | 1.11 | 1.15 | 0.91 | 1.26 | 0.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRH's fair value at $117.25 vs the current price of $23.96, implying +389.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $117.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.14 (P10) to $134.19 (P90), with a median of $117.51.
PRH's current P/E of 3.2x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -77.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for PRH.
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1140.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.