MODEL VERDICT
Park National Corporation (PRK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $173.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $171.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $175.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $171.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $172.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $133.00 | -23.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $90.08 | -48.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $99.56 | -42.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $186.85 | +7.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $132.99 | -23.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $124.74 | -28.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $138.22 | -20.2% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $137 | $160 | $183 | $206 | $229 |
| Conservative (5%) | $140 | $163 | $187 | $210 | $233 |
| Base Case (7.3%) | $143 | $167 | $191 | $215 | $238 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $147 | $171 | $195 | $220 | $244 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.58 | 15.52 | 13.46 | 18.39 | 1.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.96 | 14.12 | 10.95 | 15.81 | 1.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.04 | 13.12 | 10.55 | 14.83 | 1.62 |
| P/FCF | 16.61 | 16.41 | 12.83 | 20.76 | 2.49 |
| P/FFO | 14.35 | 14.20 | 12.42 | 17.02 | 1.56 |
| P/TBV | 2.29 | 2.23 | 2.01 | 2.61 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 15.76 | 15.65 | 13.51 | 18.03 | 1.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.93 | 1.89 | 1.66 | 2.24 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.04 | 3.83 | 3.56 | 4.74 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRK's fair value at $138.22 vs the current price of $173.26, implying -20.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $138.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $132.44 (P10) to $146.33 (P90), with a median of $139.22.
PRK's current P/E of 15.6x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +30.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover PRK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $188.00 (range: $188.00 — $188.00), implying +8.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PRK trades at the 7350th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 360.0% to approximately $167. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.