MODEL VERDICT
United Parks & Resorts Inc. (PRKS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $35.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $33.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $36.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $36.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $37.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $63.11 | +78.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $112.03 | +217.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $52.75 | +49.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $84.57 | +139.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $108.27 | +207.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $105.78 | +199.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $70.07 | +98.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $50.70 | +43.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $52.25 | +48.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $84.87 | +140.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $82.25 | +133.2% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $25 | $32 | $38 | $45 | $51 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $33 | $39 | $46 | $52 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $27 | $34 | $40 | $47 | $54 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $35 | $42 | $49 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.19 | 14.69 | 11.86 | 28.83 | 6.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.20 | 11.97 | 5.26 | 19.73 | 5.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.73 | 8.96 | 3.51 | 11.98 | 2.83 |
| P/FCF | 13.35 | 14.17 | 7.59 | 17.03 | 3.72 |
| P/FFO | 9.12 | 8.70 | 5.82 | 12.74 | 2.28 |
| P/AFFO | 25.72 | 21.17 | 8.84 | 46.88 | 14.96 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.61 | 1.97 | 1.20 | 5.72 | 1.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRKS's fair value at $82.25 vs the current price of $35.27, implying +133.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $82.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.71 (P10) to $89.08 (P90), with a median of $78.22.
PRKS's current P/E of 11.5x compares to the industry median of 17.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -33.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover PRKS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $47.60 (range: $39.00 — $54.00), implying +35.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (10), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PRKS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8570.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.