MODEL VERDICT
Primo Brands Corporation (PRMB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $22.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $17.99 | Pending | +5.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $25.46 | +12.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $41.34 | +82.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $5.17 | -77.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $20.00 | -11.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $21.11 | -6.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $24.69 | +8.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $43.13 | +90.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $38.91 | +71.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $5.15 | -77.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $19.64 | -13.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.16 | +24.2% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 90× | 99× | 108× (Current) | 117× | 126× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (7%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $21 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 181.70 | 82.10 | 37.83 | 524.77 | 229.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.69 | 34.75 | 15.82 | 59.23 | 16.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.28 | 12.79 | 8.82 | 14.85 | 2.04 |
| P/FCF | 23.55 | 21.05 | 10.44 | 39.19 | 8.96 |
| P/FFO | 31.22 | 11.89 | 6.07 | 145.95 | 50.90 |
| P/AFFO | 38.21 | 38.51 | 13.37 | 59.17 | 20.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 129.53 | 2.05 | 1.30 | 895.30 | 337.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.12 | 1.25 | 0.51 | 1.49 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRMB's fair value at $28.16 vs the current price of $22.68, implying +24.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.26 (P10) to $33.02 (P90), with a median of $27.34.
PRMB's current P/E of 108.0x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +338.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 181.7x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover PRMB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.14 (range: $18.00 — $35.00), implying +10.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PRMB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.