MODEL VERDICT
Power Solutions International, Inc. (PSIX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $70.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $77.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $79.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $83.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $77.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $120.90 | +71.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $79.94 | +13.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $162.98 | +131.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $20.14 | -71.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $106.83 | +51.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $16.63 | -76.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $163.22 | +131.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $19.76 | -72.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.41 | +4.1% | 100% | 60 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $51 | $62 | $72 | $82 | $92 |
| Conservative (7%) | $53 | $63 | $74 | $84 | $95 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $54 | $65 | $76 | $87 | $98 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $56 | $67 | $78 | $90 | $101 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.03 | 9.88 | 1.78 | 20.79 | 7.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.06 | 10.95 | 4.48 | 17.36 | 4.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.99 | 8.93 | 3.98 | 12.42 | 3.21 |
| P/FCF | 29.38 | 11.80 | 0.72 | 93.21 | 42.87 |
| P/FFO | 7.10 | 9.19 | 1.48 | 11.04 | 4.20 |
| P/AFFO | 8.09 | 9.79 | 1.75 | 12.73 | 4.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.06 | 8.94 | 5.97 | 12.38 | 2.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 1.44 | 0.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates PSIX's fair value at $73.41 vs the current price of $70.50, implying +4.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.75 (P10) to $84.16 (P90), with a median of $76.83.
PSIX's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 33.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -56.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover PSIX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $104.26 (range: $101.51 — $107.00), implying +47.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 21.5% is 17.2 percentage points above the 5-year average (3.5%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$8. (2) Multiple compression: PSIX trades at the 620th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PSIX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8860.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.