MODEL VERDICT
PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $154.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $153.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $155.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $154.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $134.45 | Below threshold | +16.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $148.87 | -3.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $193.21 | +25.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $177.10 | +14.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $94.11 | -39.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $198.20 | +28.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $95.91 | -38.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $219.01 | +41.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $264.37 | +71.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $243.48 | +57.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $166.12 | +7.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $91.01 | -41.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $215.61 | +39.5% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $132 | $147 | $163 | $178 | $193 |
| Conservative (9%) | $136 | $152 | $168 | $184 | $199 |
| Base Case (13.6%) | $142 | $159 | $175 | $192 | $208 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $148 | $165 | $182 | $200 | $217 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.76 | 23.01 | 17.98 | 35.72 | 6.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.91 | 14.83 | 11.46 | 22.53 | 3.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.75 | 10.18 | 8.01 | 15.01 | 2.42 |
| P/FCF | 280.73 | 70.84 | 17.34 | 1590.99 | 579.78 |
| P/FFO | 14.67 | 13.76 | 10.87 | 19.90 | 3.06 |
| P/TBV | 2.69 | 2.58 | 1.96 | 3.55 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 53.25 | 51.65 | 36.83 | 72.21 | 12.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.55 | 2.46 | 1.88 | 3.31 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.46 | 0.83 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PSMT's fair value at $215.61 vs the current price of $154.62, implying +39.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $215.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $133.81 (P10) to $389.20 (P90), with a median of $205.67.
PSMT's current P/E of 32.1x compares to the industry median of 36.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -12.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
8 analysts cover PSMT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $83.50 (range: $77.00 — $90.00), implying -46.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PSMT trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (24.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PSMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2820.0% to approximately $111. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.