MODEL VERDICT
Portillo's Inc. (PTLO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $6.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $5.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $5.02 | -22.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $16.76 | +158.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $6.79 | +4.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $17.36 | +167.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $30.08 | +363.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $29.80 | +359.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $6.79 | +4.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.74 | +80.9% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.08 | 35.11 | 16.81 | 65.28 | 23.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.79 | 25.23 | 13.76 | 71.40 | 23.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.74 | 18.22 | 7.35 | 30.46 | 8.47 |
| P/FCF | 110.97 | 70.93 | 61.07 | 200.90 | 78.04 |
| P/FFO | 21.29 | 21.36 | 6.66 | 45.87 | 15.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.73 | 1.61 | 0.65 | 3.17 | 0.95 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.27 | 1.19 | 0.44 | 2.51 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates PTLO's fair value at $11.74 vs the current price of $6.49, implying +80.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.92 (P10) to $15.71 (P90), with a median of $12.74.
PTLO's current P/E of 24.0x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -4.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.1x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover PTLO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.92 (range: $5.50 — $9.00), implying +6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PTLO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (8.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 40600.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.