MODEL VERDICT
Prudential plc (PUK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $30.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $30.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $30.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $30.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $30.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $28.12 | -6.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $19.53 | -35.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $19.91 | -34.0% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $11.43 | -62.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $27.86 | -7.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $25.10 | -16.8% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $25.56 | -15.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $74.32 | +146.3% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.71 | -18.1% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $19 | $23 | $28 | $33 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $19 | $24 | $29 | $34 |
| Base Case (-6.9%) | $13 | $17 | $21 | $25 | $30 |
| Bull Case (-9%) | $12 | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.11 | 10.98 | 9.05 | 32.38 | 9.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.91 | 7.60 | 0.77 | 10.21 | 3.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.02 | 7.68 | 0.76 | 10.21 | 3.26 |
| P/FCF | 29.33 | 20.98 | 6.18 | 93.47 | 32.27 |
| P/FFO | 9.08 | 9.95 | 6.93 | 10.35 | 1.87 |
| P/TBV | 6.58 | 1.59 | 1.18 | 28.58 | 10.02 |
| P/AFFO | 9.38 | 10.20 | 7.07 | 10.88 | 2.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.47 | 1.16 | 0.86 | 2.53 | 0.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.34 | 1.07 | 0.64 | 2.66 | 0.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates PUK's fair value at $24.71 vs the current price of $30.17, implying -18.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.71 (P10) to $31.59 (P90), with a median of $26.40.
PUK's current P/E of 9.7x compares to the industry median of 12.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -21.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.1x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
8 analysts cover PUK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PUK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (9.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3420.0% to approximately $20. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.